China’s GLP-1 Revolution: How the World’s Largest Diabetes Market is Reshaping Global Supply Chains
- zachmckibbin7
- Jul 17
- 3 min read
Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists have transformed the global landscape for managing type 2 diabetes and obesity. As these therapies become increasingly popular in Western markets, a parallel transformation is underway in China—home to over 140 million people with diabetes.
China is no longer just a destination for global pharmaceutical sales. It is becoming a production powerhouse, a source of medical innovation, and a strategic force in global pricing and supply chain decisions.
A Shifting Market: GLP-1 Therapies in China
China’s regulatory agencies have recently approved a range of injectable and oral GLP-1 therapies:
Injectables like semaglutide (Ozempic) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro) are available from global firms.
In June 2025, China’s NMPA approved mazdutide, a dual GLP-1/glucagon receptor agonist co-developed by Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, for chronic weight management. Clinical trials demonstrated up to 14.8% weight loss—a compelling result for a domestically produced drug.
On the oral front, Rybelsus (oral semaglutide) became the first approved GLP-1 tablet in January 2024. With China’s vast diabetic population, demand for non-injectable therapies is expected to grow rapidly.
What’s in the Pipeline?
The innovation isn’t slowing down:
Lilly’s orforglipron, a small-molecule oral GLP-1, is in Phase III trials with regulatory submission in China expected by early 2026.
GSBR-1290 (aleniglipron), now in Phase IIb trials, is anticipated to enter China by 2028.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies like Sciwind and Hua Medicine are advancing their own therapies with clinical results showing efficacy comparable to global leaders.
This wave of R&D signals China’s ambition to lead—not follow—in the next generation of metabolic treatments.
Pricing Disruption and Domestic Access
China’s GLP-1 therapies are notably more affordable:
Rybelsus: ¥950–1,300 per box (USD $130–180)
Mazdutide: ~¥1,000 per weekly dose
These prices undercut many branded GLP-1s available in the U.S. or Europe. Additionally, distribution through major e-commerce platforms like JD Health and Alibaba Health is improving access to lower-tier cities and underserved populations.
API Production: China’s Global Leverage
China is already a top exporter of GLP-1 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). But with local demand on the rise, a larger portion of API output may be retained for domestic use. This could create ripple effects:
Tighter global supply for generic and compounded GLP-1 formulations
Upward pricing pressure in Western markets
Increased vulnerability for pharmacies and PBMs that rely on Chinese APIs
Global Implications: What International Stakeholders Should Watch
Patients and Providers: As lower-cost oral GLP-1s enter China, international patients may begin seeking offshore or parallel import options.
Pharmacy Benefit Managers: PBMs and employer health plans may be pressured to match the pricing and convenience offered by Chinese or international competitors.
Pharmaceutical Companies: Multinationals may find themselves competing not only with each other but also with China-based firms offering effective, affordable alternatives.
What Comes Next?
China’s trajectory points toward leadership in dual and triple agonist therapies, biosimilar production, and global export. The country’s growing capabilities in innovation, manufacturing, and distribution could make it a central force in the global fight against metabolic diseases.
However, regulatory harmonization and intellectual property frameworks will determine how—and how quickly—Chinese therapies reach patients abroad.
At McKibbin Group Inc., we help our clients navigate these global shifts. From regulatory insight to supply chain strategy, we are your bridge to the future of international healthcare.
For more strategic insights on pharmaceutical innovation and cross-border market entry, contact us at Zachm@mckibbingroup.com.
